Understanding the Roots of Scientific Progress
WPI works to establish and refine quantitative models of scientific progress and to generate evidence that can inform funders and policymakers about the most effective way to support scientific discoveries. Importantly, all the knowledge generated by the research arm of the Institute also feeds back into our own process for targeting research funding.
One area in which better models of scientific progress can usefully inform research administration is in the basic design of grant programs. Although the evidence clearly shows that broad investment in science today delivers advances tomorrow, it is also widely acknowledged that some specific investigations will fail along the way. There is little data to guide funders as they attempt to gauge how long to wait before evaluating whether or not to re-invest in an individual project, or how large a grant needs to be to mitigate the risk that insufficient resources will lead to failure. Having clear answers about the optimal length and size of awards would facilitate the more effective distribution of scarce resources – but providing those answers requires a detailed understanding of how knowledge flows from individual investigations to larger advances.
Quantitative models of scientific progress can also help identify stagnant areas of research, determine the optimal balance of fundamental to applied projects in a portfolio, and define and evaluate interdisciplinary work.
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